Scenario Modeling Hub
COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub aims to provide long-term projections of potential trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. The teams used a multiple-model approach comprising multiple models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States at state and national level across four scenarios over a 6-month or a year or other time specific long time period.
Flu Scenario Modeling Hub
The Flu Scenario Modeling Hub aims to provide long-term projections of potential trends in Flu hospitalizations, and deaths. The teams used a multiple-model approach comprising multiple models to assess the potential course of Flu in the United States at state (hospitalization only) and national level across four scenarios over a 6-month or a year or other time specific long time period.
Rationale
Even the best models of emerging infections struggle to give accurate forecasts at time scales greater than 3-4 weeks due to unpredictable drivers such as a changing policy environment, behavior change, the development of new control measures, and stochastic events. However, policy decisions around the course of emerging infections often require projections in the time frame of months. The goal of long-term projections is to compare outbreak trajectories under different scenarios, as opposed to offering a specific, unconditional estimate of what “will” happen.
As such, long-term projections can guide longer-term decision-making while short-term forecasts are more useful for situational awareness and guiding immediate response.
