Scenario Modeling Hub

COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub aims to provide long-term projections of potential trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. The teams use a multiple-model approach comprising multiple models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States at state and national level across multiple scenarios examining changes in behavior or control, new variants, and vaccination impacts over a 3-month to 2-year time period, depending on the round.

Flu Scenario Modeling Hub

The Flu Scenario Modeling Hub aims to provide long-term projections of potential trends in influenza hospitalizations and deaths. The teams use a multiple-model approach comprising multiple models to assess the potential course of influenza in the United States at state and national level across multiple scenarios examining uncertainty in immunity, variations in subtypes, and vaccination impacts over the course of each influenza season.

RSV Scenario Modeling Hub

The RSV Scenario Modeling Hub aims to provide long-term projections of potential trends in RSV hospitalizations. The teams used a multiple-model approach comprising multiple models to assess the potential course of RSV in the United States at state and national level across multiples scenarios examining the impacts of new vaccines and monoclonals over the course of each RSV season.


Rationale

Even the best models of emerging infections struggle to give accurate forecasts at time scales greater than 3-4 weeks due to unpredictable drivers such as a changing policy environment, behavior change, the development of new control measures, and stochastic events. However, policy decisions around the course of emerging infections often require projections in the time frame of months. The goal of long-term projections is to compare outbreak trajectories under different scenarios, as opposed to offering a specific, unconditional estimate of what “will” happen.

As such, long-term projections can guide longer-term decision-making while short-term forecasts are more useful for situational awareness and guiding immediate response.